Missouri St.

Conference:	MVC
Expected RPI:	136.0
Current RPI:	136
Expected SOS:	118
Current SOS:	118
Current Record:	17-15
Expected Record:	17-15
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	2-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	6-2
Current OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC Record:	9-3
Expected OOC RPI:	79
Expected OOC SOS:	183

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-15	136.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Missouri St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Western Kentucky (39.0)	CUSA	A	80-85	W	100%
11-15	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	86-58	W	100%
11-17	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	H	54-57	L	0%
11-20	Georgia Southern (140.0)	SB	N	73-74	L	0%
11-21	Manhattan (228.0)	MAAC	N	69-65	W	100%
11-22	Florida Atlantic (275.0)	CUSA	N	60-71	W	100%
11-28	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	77-67	W	100%
12-2	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	N	53-73	W	100%
12-4	North Dakota St. (210.0)	Sum	A	58-71	W	100%
12-8	Hampton (237.0)	MEAC	H	88-75	W	100%
12-10	Oral Roberts (255.0)	Sum	A	73-66	L	0%
12-19	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	66-50	W	100%
12-22	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	H	64-59	W	100%
12-31	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	A	50-67	W	100%
1-4	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	H	62-55	W	100%
1-7	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	A	72-68	L	0%
1-10	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	A	64-55	L	0%
1-14	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	H	76-73	W	100%
1-17	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	H	64-57	W	100%
1-20	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	61-58	L	0%
1-23	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	A	72-52	L	0%
1-27	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	H	77-79	L	0%
1-30	Illinois St. (85.0)	MVC	H	60-76	L	0%
2-3	Loyola Chicago (22.0)	MVC	A	97-75	L	0%
2-6	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	62-81	W	100%
2-10	Evansville (151.0)	MVC	H	72-55	W	100%
2-14	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	A	81-80	L	0%
2-18	Drake (166.0)	MVC	H	63-67	L	0%
2-21	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	78-82	L	0%
2-24	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	71-56	L	0%
3-1	Valparaiso (188.0)	MVC	N	83-79	W	100%
3-2	Southern Illinois (100.0)	MVC	N	67-63	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Missouri St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Missouri St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Missouri St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Missouri St.	MVC	26.53	26.53	52.08	52.08	1.11	1.11
Southern Illinois	MVC	5.60	5.60	55.17	55.17	0.58	0.58
Valparaiso	MVC	5.54	5.54	48.15	48.15	-0.21	-0.21
Illinois St.	MVC	4.22	4.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	4.21	4.21	86.67	86.67	3.09	3.09
Bradley	MVC	4.16	4.16	56.67	56.67	0.56	0.56
Northern Iowa	MVC	4.13	4.13	46.43	46.43	-0.30	-0.30
Drake	MVC	4.11	4.11	44.83	44.83	-0.43	-0.43
Indiana St.	MVC	4.10	4.10	40.74	40.74	-0.76	-0.76
Evansville	MVC	4.09	4.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	3.26	3.26	40.74	40.74	-0.60	-0.60
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.83	1.83	82.76	82.76	1.20	1.20
Oral Roberts	Sum	1.72	1.72	25.93	25.93	-0.83	-0.83
Western Kentucky	CUSA	1.67	1.67	71.88	71.88	0.73	0.73
Wright St.	Horz	1.64	1.64	74.19	74.19	0.79	0.79
Georgia Southern	SB	1.61	1.61	60.00	60.00	0.32	0.32
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	1.59	1.59	33.33	33.33	-0.53	-0.53
Colorado St.	MWC	1.56	1.56	33.33	33.33	-0.52	-0.52
Hampton	MEAC	1.56	1.56	53.33	53.33	0.10	0.10
Manhattan	MAAC	1.56	1.56	46.67	46.67	-0.10	-0.10
Southern	SWAC	1.56	1.56	43.33	43.33	-0.21	-0.21
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.32	0.32	24.14	24.14	-0.16	-0.16
South Dakota	Sum	0.29	0.29	73.33	73.33	0.14	0.14
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.27	0.27	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.24	0.24	46.43	46.43	-0.02	-0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.18	0.18	78.12	78.12	0.10	0.10
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.17	0.17	41.38	41.38	-0.03	-0.03
Nevada	MWC	0.17	0.17	79.41	79.41	0.10	0.10
Kent St.	MAC	0.15	0.15	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.15	0.15	30.00	30.00	-0.06	-0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	0.15	0.15	3.33	3.33	-0.14	-0.14
Tulsa	Amer	0.15	0.15	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Boise St.	MWC	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.15	0.15	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.15	0.15	82.76	82.76	0.10	0.10
North Dakota	BSky	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.13	0.13	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Arkansas St.	SB	0.13	0.13	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.13	0.13	24.24	24.24	-0.07	-0.07
Utah St.	MWC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.13	0.13	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Green Bay	Horz	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Samford	SC	0.13	0.13	26.67	26.67	-0.06	-0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.13	0.13	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UAB	CUSA	0.13	0.13	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.13	0.13	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Marshall	CUSA	0.12	0.12	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.12	0.12	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.12	0.12	10.34	10.34	-0.10	-0.10
Milwaukee	Horz	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.11	0.11	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
UNLV	MWC	0.11	0.11	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.10	0.10	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Air Force	MWC	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.10	0.10	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.10	0.10	17.86	17.86	-0.07	-0.07
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Fresno St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Purdue	B10	0.10	0.10	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Iowa	B10	0.10	0.10	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.10	0.10	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.10	0.10	12.50	12.50	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.10	0.10	67.74	67.74	0.04	0.04
Winthrop	BSth	0.10	0.10	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Rice	CUSA	0.08	0.08	17.24	17.24	-0.05	-0.05
Towson	CAA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
UC Riverside	BW	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Ohio	MAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Duke	ACC	0.08	0.08	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Xavier	BE	0.08	0.08	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Iona	MAAC	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.08	0.08	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.07	0.07	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.05	0.05	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	15.62	15.62	-0.03	-0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.05	0.05	19.35	19.35	-0.03	-0.03
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.05	0.05	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
BYU	WCC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
George Washington	A10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois	B10	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00